It’s been a rough week for U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump, and the international betting markets are responding accordingly.
In fact, the situation for the contentious Republican Party candidate has gotten so dire that William Hill Sportsbook & Racebook posted 10-to-1 odds yesterday that Trump would bow out of the race, with a 1-to-33 chance that he will remain on the ticket.
“Persistent rumors are circulating that Trump will pull out of the race, but we think that is very unlikely,” said William Hill spokesman Graham Sharpe.
While William Hill’s odds reflect a 97% chance he stays in the race, the odds of him overtaking Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton are getting more improbable with each day — although the betting public is still backing Trump, who opened as a 100-to-1 shot to win the Republican Party nomination last year.
On Tuesday, William Hill cut Clinton’s odds of becoming the next U.S. president from 4-to-9 (69% chance) to 2-to-5 (71% chance). This morning the odds made another move to the chalk with Clinton listed as a 4-to-11 favorite (73% chance), while Trump backers can get 21-to-10 odds (33% shot) on him pulling off the upset.
Yet William Hill says that 39% of all the bets they have taken on the election have been for Trump, with just 22% for Clinton, while 53% of total stakes are for Trump, with 38% for Clinton.
“Mr. Trump is certainly the favored choice of political punters, but the betting still suggests victory for Clinton,” Sharpe added. “‘Two-horse races often show regular changes in odds, and with the opinion polls yet to settle down, we expect to see more swings in either direction as the campaigns reach a climax.”
William Hill is also offering longshot odds on Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (50-to-1), Vice President Joe Biden (100-to-1) and Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson (100-to-1) to be the next president.
At Intertops Sportsbook, Clinton is listed at -278, Trump at +200 and Johnson at 100-to-1.
According to Paul Krishnamurty, a professional gambler and independent political analyst who regularly contributes to Politico, Betfair and www.politicalgambler.com, since 2001 the favorite from 100 days out to be next president (or party to win the most seats) has gone on to win in every U.S. or U.K. general election.
Of course, the shocking Brexit vote in June was contrary to that trend, but according to Krishnamurty, as the 100-day threshold passed for the U.S. presidential election, the odds make Clinton “the strongest favorite ever” at this stage of the race.
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) August 2, 2016
“Four years ago, Barack Obama was trading around 1.64, slightly longer than the same stage in 2008,” Krishnamurty wrote on Tuesday. “In 2004, George W. Bush headed a much tighter race. From around 1.8 at this stage, Bush even surrendered favoritism to John Kerry during the campaign and even on election night, before eventually winning.”
Unfortunately, U.S. bettors looking to make a wager on the presidential election are out of luck, since political races are not offered legally in Nevada — much to chagrin of the sportsbooks.
“It would have blown the Super Bowl away,” Sherman said.